????????? - satohhide?s log cabin

「バブルを生んだのはFRBではない(池田信夫 blog)」で紹介されていたThe Fed Didn't Cause the Housing Bubbleを読む。 As I noted on this page in December 2007, the presumptive cause of the world-wide decline in long-term rates was the tectonic shift in the early 1990s by much of the developing world from heavy emphasis on central planning to increasingly dynamic, export-led market competition. The result was a surge in growth in China and a large number of other emerging market economies that led to an excess of global intended savings relative to intended capital investment. That ex ante excess of savings propelled global long-term interest rates progressively lower between early 2000 and 2005.

グリーンスパン氏は(冷戦終結後の)90年代から新興国が中央集権的計画経済からダイナミックな輸出主導型市場競争へ構造的転換した結果、長期金利が低下したという。池田氏の解説にもあるように、

FRBがFF金利を引き上げても長期金利が下がる現象を、グリーンスパンが「謎」(conundrum)と呼んだのは有名だが、その謎の原因は新興国の貯蓄過剰だったという。---kijiyori



From: http://ping.fm/D8lxD